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Scenarios from scenario planning are not forecasts.

Posted on December 23, 2019 at 10:45 AM

"The climate community got off track by forgetting the distinction between using scenarios as an exploratory tool for developing and evaluating policy options, and using scenarios as forecasts of where the world is headed." https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/12/22/in-2020-climate-science-needs-to-hit-the-reset-button-part-one


Scenarios from scenario planning are not forecasts but can provide insight and identify many signposts that can be utilized for future decision making.

 

Note, there is no specific and exact way to do scenario planning. However, the IPCC scenarios may be more along the lines of scientific projections than scenario planning but it is hard to tell. The article does provide many useful scenario planning references, however.

 

Also, it is generally prudent to be wary of specific numbers for an event placed well into the future, especially when there is much uncertainty. Scenario planning is used to address this by helping an organization understand what is plausible and improve decision making.



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